Expert forecasts on AI progress and impacts
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) tracks the views of leading computer scientists, industry professionals, policy researchers, and economists on the trajectory of artificial intelligence. Every month, panelists provide thousands of forecasts on AI capabilities and their effects, providing a roadmap of AI's future impacts. LEAP is a project from the Forecasting Research Institute, with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Featured Forecasts
Featured Report
Wave 12: Safety Policies
How federal preemption, AI capability slowdowns, pre-release authorization, strict liability, and a policy bundle would affect catastrophic AI risk, how likely each is to be implemented, and which policies respondents support.
Oct 5, 2026
Beyond Bold Predictions: The Many Views on AI's Future
Forecasts about AI and its impact—on jobs, science, our lives—influence our thinking and policies today. A few bold predictions tend to dominate headlines, but these represent only a fraction of expert views on the future of AI. Understanding the full range of expert predictions can help make policy that is grounded in the best evidence about the future of AI and its impact.
LEAP operates on three key principles:
- Accountability — LEAP forecasts are detailed and verifiable, encouraging disciplined thinking and allowing us to track whose predictions prove most accurate.
- Wisdom of crowds — LEAP emphasizes diversity of perspective and rewards calibration and timeliness of forecasts.
- Decision relevance — LEAP questions are designed to elicit policy-relevant forecasts, helping decision-makers plan for likely futures across domains.
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