Reports
Our reports detail forecasts from AI experts, superforecasters, and the public on AI progress and impacts over the coming decades.
Featured Reports
Launch White Paper
A detailed overview of LEAP, outlining the methodology, survey design, and composition of the expert panel.
Insights from Waves 1, 2, and 3
An analysis of forecasts across Waves 1, 2, and 3: understanding expert views on headline AI indicators, applications of AI to science, and broad adoption.
Monthly Reports
Wave 1: Headliners
The speed of development and broad societal impacts of AI.
Wave 2: AI for Science
The effects of AI on science, math, and medicine; electricity consumption by AI models; and the expected limitations of AI.
Wave 3: Broad Adoption of AI
AI use in jobs, AI companions, investment, the gap between closed vs. open-source models, and barriers to adoption.
Wave 4: AI R&D
The future of AI R&D, including the capacity of hyperscale data centers, the performance of AI in software development, and the impacts on employment at AI companies.
Wave 5: Security and Geopolitics
U.S.-China AI competition, chip manufacturing geopolitics, autonomous cyber weapons, AI forecasting capabilities, and regulatory fines on AI companies.
Wave 6: Economic Effects of AI
U.S. GDP growth, labor force participation, and wealth inequality under slow, moderate, and rapid AI progress scenarios through 2030 and 2050.
Wave 7: Robotics
Global industrial robot supply, U.S. labor share, when robots will pass the Coffee Test and perform surgery autonomously, and Amazon's sales per distribution worker.
Wave 8: Timelines
AGI timelines, METR task-horizon benchmarks, Technological Richter Scale updates, determinants of AGI progress, rapid-progress scenario forecasts, and AI's societal impact.
Wave 9: Risks
AI model governance, cybercrime losses, AI and total catastrophic risk, the first major AI global harm event, and democratic backsliding among the world's largest economies.
Have an idea for a question?
Do you have something you'd like the LEAP panel to explore in future waves? Submit it and help shape our next wave of questions.