Reports

Monthly in-depth analysis of LEAP forecasts

Wave Report

Wave 12: Safety Policies

How federal preemption, AI capability slowdowns, pre-release authorization, strict liability, and a policy bundle would affect catastrophic AI risk, how likely each is to be implemented, and which policies respondents support.

Oct 5, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 11: AI Industry Economics

Frontier lab revenue run-rates and whether OpenAI or Anthropic stays independent, U.S. data center and IT investment, and the market performance of AI-exposed equities.

Aug 27, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 10: Benefits

Deaths from currently non-eradicable diseases, U.S. life expectancy, real GDP growth, the consumer value of generative AI, and global self-reported happiness.

Jul 28, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 9: Risks

Catastrophic and global-harm risks from AI, total catastrophic risk, cybercrime losses, government restrictions on AI releases, and democratic backsliding among the world's largest economies.

Jun 30, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 8: Timelines

AGI timelines, METR task-horizon benchmarks, Technological Richter Scale updates, determinants of AGI progress, rapid-progress scenario forecasts, and AI's societal impact.

Jun 1, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 7: Robotics

Global industrial robot supply, U.S. labor share, when robots will pass the Coffee Test and perform surgery autonomously, and Amazon's sales per distribution worker.

Apr 19, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 6: Economic Effects of AI

U.S. GDP growth, labor force participation, and wealth inequality under slow, moderate, and rapid AI progress scenarios through 2030 and 2050.

Apr 7, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 5: Security and Geopolitics

U.S.-China AI competition, chip manufacturing geopolitics, autonomous cyber weapons, AI forecasting capabilities, and regulatory fines on AI companies.

Feb 23, 2026

Wave Report

Wave 4: AI R&D

The future of AI R&D, including the capacity of hyperscale data centers, the performance of AI in software development, and the impacts on employment at AI companies.

Jan 12, 2026