Forecasts
Explore AI forecasts from hundreds of experts
Showing 64 of 64 forecasts
Wave 12: Safety Policies
The probability of catastrophic and sub-catastrophic AI harm by 2050 under seven safety-policy regimes, and how likely each of those policies is to be implemented.
Catastrophe Risk under AI Safety Policies
Chance of a catastrophic or sub-catastrophic AI event by 2050, under each policy scenario
Experts median · Unconditional · 2050
Implementation of AI Safety Policies
Chance each AI safety policy is in force by the resolution year
Experts median · 2030
+5 more
Support for AI Safety Policies
Share of each group saying each AI safety policy should be implemented
Experts median · 2026
+4 more
Wave 11: AI Industry Economics
Frontier lab revenue run-rates and whether OpenAI or Anthropic stays independent, U.S. data center and IT investment, and the market performance of AI-exposed equities.
Probability OpenAI or Anthropic Stays Independent
Chance that OpenAI or Anthropic is still an independent company at each horizon
99%
Experts median · 2026
OpenAI and Anthropic Revenue Run-Rate
OpenAI and Anthropic's combined annualized revenue run-rate, in 2026 dollars
$70B
Experts median · 2026
AI-Exposed Tech ETFs
Value of two AI-exposed ETFs, rebased so that 100 is their July 2026 close
Experts median · 2026
U.S. Data Center and IT Investment
U.S. private fixed investment in data centers and IT, indexed so that 100 is its 2025 level
Experts median · 2026
Wave 10: Benefits
Deaths from currently non-eradicable diseases, U.S. life expectancy, real GDP growth, the consumer value of generative AI, and global self-reported happiness.
Global Deaths from TB, Malaria, and HIV
Annual worldwide deaths from TB, malaria and HIV, against 2.5 million today
2,194,190
Experts median · Unconditional · 2030
U.S. Period Life Expectancy
U.S. period life expectancy at birth, in years
83 yrs
Experts median · Unconditional · 2050
Annualized Global Real GDP Growth
Annualized real GDP growth for advanced and emerging economies over each period
Experts median · Unconditional · 2030
How Much U.S. Consumers Will Value AI
Monthly payment the average U.S. chatbot user would need to give the tools up
$450
Experts median · Unconditional · 2026
Global Life Satisfaction (Cantril Ladder)
Global life satisfaction on the 0-10 Cantril ladder, against 5.44 in 2025
5.45
Experts median · Unconditional · 2026
Wave 9: Risks
Catastrophic and global-harm risks from AI, total catastrophic risk, cybercrime losses, government restrictions on AI releases, and democratic backsliding among the world's largest economies.
Year a Major Government Restricts an AI Release
The year the U.S., U.K. or EU first blocks an AI release on safety grounds
2030
Experts median · 50% chance
FBI-Reported U.S. Cybercrime Losses
U.S. cybercrime losses reported to the FBI each year, in 2025 dollars
$27B
Experts median · Unconditional · 2026
Probability of a Global AI Catastrophe
Chance of a global AI-caused catastrophe by each resolution year
0.3%
Experts median · Unconditional · 2030
Probability of Any Global Catastrophe
Chance of any global catastrophe, from any cause, by each resolution year
1%
Experts median · Unconditional · 2030
Probability of a Major AI Harm Event by 2050
Chance of an AI event killing 50+ people or causing $100B of damage by 2050
62%
Experts median · 2050
Year of the First Major AI Harm Event
The year of the first such AI harm event, if one happens at all
2035
Experts median · 50% chance
Rise of Authoritarianism
How many of the world's ten largest economies are rated authoritarian
2
Experts median · Unconditional · 2027
Wave 8: Timelines
AGI timelines, METR task-horizon benchmarks, Technological Richter Scale updates, determinants of AGI progress, rapid-progress scenario forecasts, and AI's societal impact.
Probability of AI's Impact by 2040
Chance of each impact level on the technological Richter scale (Wave 8)
Experts median · 2040
+3 more
Probability Experts Declare AGI Before 2100
Chance that most of the expert panel agrees AGI exists before 2100
80%
Experts median · 2099
Year Experts Expect to Declare AGI
The year the expert panel would agree AGI has arrived, if it arrives at all
2050
Experts median · 50% chance
Expert-Weighted Factors Enabling AGI
How the panel splits 100 points across the factors most enabling AGI by 2040
Experts median · 2040
+5 more
Expert-Weighted Factors Blocking AGI
How the panel splits 100 points across the factors most blocking AGI by 2040
Experts median · 2040
+5 more
Longest 80%-Reliable AI Task Length (METR)
Longest task, in hours, the best AI completes with 80% reliability (METR)
3.4 hrs
Experts median · 2026
Year AI Masters 8-Hour Expert Tasks
The year the best AI first handles an 8-hour expert task with 80% reliability
2030
Experts median · 50% chance
Probability Experts Declare Rapid AI Progress
Chance the expert panel eventually declares AI progress 'rapid'
68%
Experts median · 2099
Year Experts Expect Rapid AI Progress
The year the panel would declare rapid AI progress, if it happens at all
2045
Experts median · 50% chance
Wave 7: Robotics
Global industrial robot supply, U.S. labor share, when robots will pass the Coffee Test and perform surgery autonomously, and Amazon's sales per distribution worker.
Industrial Robots in Use Globally
Number of industrial robots in operation worldwide
5,750,000
Experts median · 2026
U.S. Labor Share of Income
Workers' share of U.S. private nonfarm income, against 57.6% in 2026
57.6%
Experts median · 2026
Year a Robot Passes the Coffee Test
The year a robot can enter an unfamiliar kitchen and make a cup of coffee
2034
Experts median · 50% chance
Year a Robot Performs Solo Surgery
The year a robot removes an appendix with no human hands involved
2040
Experts median · 50% chance
Amazon E-Commerce Sales per Distribution Worker
Amazon e-commerce sales per distribution worker, in 2025 dollars
$480,000
Experts median · 2026
Wave 6: Economic Effects
U.S. GDP growth, labor force participation, and wealth inequality under slow, moderate, and rapid AI progress scenarios through 2030 and 2050.
Slow, Moderate or Rapid AI Progress
Chance the panel judges AI progress slow, moderate or rapid at each horizon
Experts median · 2030
U.S. Annualized Real GDP Growth
Annualized U.S. real GDP growth over each period, in percentage points
2.7 pp
Experts median · Unconditional · 2029
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
Share of U.S. adults in the labor force
61.7%
Experts median · Unconditional · 2029
U.S. Economic Inequality
Share of U.S. wealth held by the richest 10% of households
73%
Experts median · Unconditional · 2029
Wave 5: Security and Geopolitics
U.S.-China AI competition, chip manufacturing geopolitics, autonomous cyber weapons, AI forecasting capabilities, and regulatory fines on AI companies.
U.S. and Chinese Frontier AI Model Performance
Epoch Capabilities Index score of the best U.S. and Chinese AI models
Experts median · 2026
Regional Share of Frontier AI Chip Manufacturing
Share of leading-edge AI chips made in each region, against 75% in Taiwan
Experts median · 2030
+1 more
Year NATO Authorizes Autonomous Cyber Weapons
The year NATO or a member state first authorizes autonomous cyber weapons
2041
Experts median · 50% chance
Probability of a U.S.–China Military AI Pact
Chance the U.S. and China sign a bilateral agreement on military uses of AI
5%
Experts median · 2027
Total Billion-Dollar Fines for AI Content
Cumulative U.S. and EU fines above $1B over AI-generated content, from none so far
$1B
Experts median · 2027
Year AI Beats Superforecasters on ForecastBench
The year an AI first forecasts better than a team of superforecasters on ForecastBench
2030
Experts median · 50% chance
Wave 4: AI R&D
The future of AI R&D, including the capacity of hyperscale data centers, the performance of AI in software development, and the impacts on employment at AI companies.
Top AI Accuracy on LiveCodeBench Pro
Best AI accuracy on the hardest subset of LiveCodeBench Pro, against 8% in mid-2025
14%
Experts median · 2026
AI Company Valuation per Employee
Valuation per employee across the top five AI companies, against $14.2M in late 2025
$16.5M
Experts median · 2026
Entry-Level Share of Big Tech Hiring
Entry-level share of new hires at large technology companies
7%
Experts median · 2026
Year Tiny Teams Hit $10B Valuations
The year three companies of five people or fewer are each worth $10B
2032
Experts median · 50% chance
Global Hyperscale Data Center Capacity
Installed capacity of the world's hyperscale data centers, against 36 GW in 2024
50 GW
Experts median · 2026
Test-of-Time Winning AI-Written Paper
The year a test-of-time award first goes to an AI paper written partly by AI
2035
Experts median · 50% chance
Wave 3: Broad Adoption of AI
AI use in jobs, AI companions, investment, the gap between closed vs. open-source models, and barriers to adoption.
Global Private Investment in AI
Total global private investment in AI each year, in constant dollars
$200B
Experts median · 2027
U.S. Work Hours Assisted by AI
Share of U.S. work hours assisted by generative AI, against about 2% in 2024
4%
Experts median · 2025
Benchmark Performance of Open and Closed Models
Mean benchmark performance of the best open and closed AI models
Experts median · 2025
Adults Using AI Companions Daily
Share of U.S. adults using AI for companionship daily, against 6% in 2025
10%
Experts median · 2027
Barriers to Adoption of AI
Share of the expert panel naming each barrier as the main brake on AI adoption
Experts median · 2030
+6 more
Wave 2: AI for Science
The effects of AI on science, math, and medicine; electricity consumption by AI models; and the expected limitations of AI.
Probability AI Solves a Millennium Prize Problem
Chance that AI helps solve one of mathematics' Millennium Prize problems
10%
Experts median · 2027
Share of AI-engaged Scientific Publications
Share of scientific publications in each field that engage with AI
Experts median · 2030
Sales of AI-discovered Drugs
Share of sales of recently approved drugs that come from AI-discovered medicines
1.6%
Experts median · 2027
Share of U.S. Electricity Used for AI
Share of U.S. electricity used to train and run AI systems, against about 1% in 2024
4%
Experts median · 2027
Cognitive Limitations of AI
Share of the expert panel calling each limitation a serious weakness of AI
Experts median · 2030
+4 more
Wave 1: Headliners
The speed of development and broad societal impacts of AI.
Accuracy on FrontierMath Benchmark
Best AI accuracy on FrontierMath, a research-level mathematics benchmark
30.6%
Experts median · 2025
U.S. Ride-Hailing Trips by Autonomous Vehicles
Share of U.S. ride-hailing trips that are driverless, against under 1% today
7.3%
Experts median · 2027
U.S. Employment Change by Occupation Type
Change in U.S. employment by occupation type since January 2025
Experts median · 2027
General AI Progress Scenarios
Share of the panel calling AI progress slow, moderate or rapid at each horizon
Experts median · 2030
Technological Richter Scale: AI Impact by 2040
Chance of each impact level on the technological Richter scale (Wave 1)
Experts median · 2040
+3 more