Global Private Investment in AI

Most high-forecast respondents extrapolate from historical trends showing over 30% compound annual growth from 2013-2024 and believe this momentum can continue. One argues, “$1T [trillion] is not very much compared to the total pool of investable assets.” Another notes that “the strong rebound to ~$130 billion in 2024 is critical. It occurred despite higher interest rates, signaling powerful, non-speculative belief in the transformative potential of generative AI.” But many low-forecast respondents worry about the AI bubble bursting, with one forecaster noting “both Deutsche Bank and Bain & Co. have just warned that the current AI boom is not sustainable,” (Edwards 2025) and another likening the current situation to “the dot com bubble in 2000.”

High-forecast respondents frequently note that “AI adoption is still in its early stages across many industries, suggesting there is substantial room for further expansion.” One forecaster quotes a 2025 McKinsey report: “Over the next three years, 92 percent of companies plan to increase their AI investments. But while nearly all companies are investing in AI, only 1 percent of leaders call their companies 'mature' on the deployment spectrum.” Some low-forecast respondents, however, argue that “the uptake for commercial purposes is still fairly slow,” and worry that productivity gains may not materialize quickly enough to justify high levels of investment. One noted, “Anthropic CEO's forecast of 90% of coding in the USA done by AI 'within six months' has been a fantastic dud” (Council on Foreign Relations 2025).

Although rarely emphasized by high-forecast respondents, pessimists often stress macroeconomic risks, with one noting “The NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research] lists 14 recessions since (but not including) the Big One in 1929,” (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2025) and from that calculates that “the chances of an economic contraction through 2027 and 2030 are 33% and 61% respectively, assuming a Poisson [i.e., random] process.”

High-forecast respondents tend to expect continued startup ecosystem growth, believing, “AI start ups & companies are staying in the private market for longer as it's much easier to get funding.” One notes that: Open AI has raised billions this year in the private market and that “these companies can also remain more agile to compete against a very fast changing market.” But some low-forecast respondents anticipate consolidation, with one arguing that “some leading companies will raise less private capital as they mature, merge, or turn to other funding sources.”

Some high-forecast respondents emphasize international expansion potential: “I suspect the number will be much higher than forecast as China's economy matures and begins to lift economies throughout the Asian region, including India. U.S. AI is just the tip of the iceberg.” Low-forecast respondents tend to express skepticism, with one noting that “investment is highly concentrated in the US,” and that “I don't expect the rest of the world to pick up the slack.”