Longest 80%-Reliable AI Task Length (METR)

The median forecaster across all groups expects the longest METR 80% time horizon by the end of 2026 will be over 3 hours (3.4, 3, and 3.5 for experts, the public, and superforecasters respectively), up from the baseline of 1.5 hours by Gemini 3.1 (Pro) on METR at the time of this survey. Experts and superforecasters assign a 25% chance of the time horizon reaching roughly 2.1 hours and a 75% chance of it reaching more than 5.5 hours by the end of 2026. On May 8, 2026, toward the end of the survey, METR updated the benchmark to include Anthropic’s Mythos preview model, with an estimated 80%-time horizon of 3 hours 6 minutes (95% CI: 1h 37m – 6h 39m), already in the range of the median forecast.