Year AI Masters 8-Hour Expert Tasks
Year AI Masters 8-Hour Expert Tasks
Experts give it until 2030 before AI can reliably do tasks that take a human expert a full working day.
Hover to highlight a group, click to show or hide itTap a group to show or hide it
Our Analysis
How do we interpret these results
Participants diverge on when they forecast AI will achieve 80% success on 8-hour tasks. Superforecasters are more optimistic and assign a 50% probability that this threshold will be reached by 2028 and a 25% probability by as early as 2027. Experts are somewhat more conservative, expecting this to occur around 2030 at the median, with a 25% chance by 2028. The public is considerably more skeptical, with a median forecast of 2037 and only a 25% probability of resolution by 2030. The 75th-percentile expert forecast of 2035 roughly matches the public's median (2035 vs. 2037).
Forecasts by group
The year by which a typical forecaster gives the event each chance of having happened
| group | 25% | 50% | 75% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Experts | 2028 | 2030 | 2035 |
| Superforecasters | 2027 | 2028 | 2030.99 |
| Public | 2030 | 2036.7 | 2045 |
Click any cell to compareTap any cell to compare
* Denotes non-overlapping bootstrapped confidence intervals between group aggregates.